Handicapping the Illini

Last night the Illini survived the battle against Penn State to advance out of the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. I'm ecstatic that the Illini won, because Penn State is a team that, while overall not incredibly dangerous, can steal a game from just about any team in the Big Ten.

I actually didn't watch the game, and I blame ESPN for this. And my job. But, regardless we're out of the first round.

I am actually quite curious as to how we managed to score 66 points. This isn't a team that has been able to shoot the lights out, and scoring often comes sparingly. So how did we win this game? Thankfully, Chester Frazier and Warren Carter were making shots.

But what did I see from the highlights? Well, first, Illinois came out strong. They've done a much better job of this since early in the year when they fell behind to everyone, then battled back, only to fold (usually) again late in the game. Of course, maintaining their MO, the Illini once again failed to maintain the intensity down the stretch.

Illinois isn't going to score a lot of points. I get it. But why are we so incapable of scoring within 3-4 minutes left in the game? We don't even get shots up. I don't know if it's so much a matter of anything more than the players on the floor either being inexperienced, or lazy, or terrible free throw shooters, or what. But to lose a 10-point lead (I'm not talking about this game specifically) in the final three minutes is unacceptable. And I often wonder why someone like Trent Meacham isn't on the floor. The offense seems to flow better with Trent in, possibly because no one is entirely comfortable with him dribbling for 20 seconds. Then again, Trent doesn't quite have the intensity and quickness of a Frazier on the defensive end.

But I'm getting off-track here. I like this win, and I think that Illinois is probably safely in the NCAA tournament now. However, we can totally help our chances with a win vs. Indiana, and I think today could be one kickass game. You've got the Indiana inbreds chanting something about how they're bitches (I fucking hate them. It's really immature, but guess what: I am) and then you've got the Illini fans actually chanting poignant, relevant, original things (like "Fuck you Hoosiers" (perhaps a poor guess on my part)). There's the animosity towards the Hoosier coach, there's intensity among the players. The rivalry has totally been revived. I'm at least happy for that. It's too bad that the occurences leading up to said rivalry had to happen, but they did, so whatever.

Anyways, back on track again. I think the Illini are in the tournament now. I'm not entirely confident about it, but, come on, 22 fucking wins, and 34 RPI ranking and 32 strength of schedule. But how will the Illini fare? I actually had this discussion the other night.

As per usual with the NCAA tournament, it all comes down to matchups. Illinois, obviously, is an outstanding defensive team. So, say they get matched up against a team that is all offense and no defense. I'd like the Illini's chances for an upset in that game. Say, however, Illinois matches up with a fundamentally sound team that makes very few mistakes, maybe we don't match up quite so well. I would also like to say that I think we match up really well against a Georgetown type team because we defend the Princeton offense so well. But that's just me. If we get refs who call touch fouls, as often happens to Big Ten teams in the tournament, that is going to hurt the Illini's chance.

Basically, unless this team can show the ability to score points, I don't think we'll get very far in the tournament. Maybe yesterday was a sign that the points will be able to come from elsewhere than expected, but I'd like to see it come from somewhere else (Calvin Brock? Marcus Arnold? Did I really just hope Marcus Arnold scores a lot today?) again today. And if that happens, then we'll get a better seed and a better matchup for us to win.

So we're in the tournament hopefully, assuming no more crazy business happens with these conference tourneys. I think Illinois can advance out of the first round (and possibly even the second) but it's going to depend on matchups. And maybe we can come out of this with, say, a 12-seed, and just make it to the sweet 16. A 12-seeed would be perfect for us to do that.

Update: Illinois is 3-8 vs. the top 50 in the RPI, which doesn't look too great. But I looked at the games they've played. Of the 8 losses, 7 came against teams with RPI's higher than Illinois. And the 8th loss was at Purdue, who has a lower RPI, and a lower strength of schedule. Many people say Purdue is in. Looks pretty crazy to put in a worse team than Illinois and not put Illinois in. Also, the two of the three wins came against teams with higher RPIs. Illinois better fucking get in.

Elevator, elevator

Illinois got the shaft in the game against the Shiteating Hoosiers on Saturday. That's not to say they didn't partially deserve to lose the game, but all things considered, I really thought that they played hard enough to win the game. We finally saw an Illini team that played nearly all game, but they played their worst down the stretch. However, like Billy Packer (he was the announcer, right) mentioned, I, yet again, have optimism for the team this season. It seems like everything is meshing at the right time heading into the tournament. If we can take a team that is supposedly so dominant at home (and a top-25 team no less) to the wire, we can escape the first round of the NCAA tournament. Anyways, here's what I noticed from Saturday's game. Also, I should note, I really wanted to post a recap of the game directly after the game, but I was so fucking angry. I was a giant ball of rage.

Kelvin Sampson and his coaching staff love cancer. Saturday was the day when the head coaches across America ignored dress codes and wore tennis shoes in support of the Coaches vs. Cancer foundation. At least, that was what Billy Packer explained; I'm not sure if he's to be believed. Regardless, it was for a good cause. But where were Sampson's sneakers? In hindsight, he probably could have approached the situation differently. Why was it his job to wear the sneakers? Why couldn't the sneakers call him? Asshole. (Note: I also saw Thad Matta without sneakers, while I think all of his staff had them on. So, if it's any surprise, Thad Matta loves cancer also. And what kind of a name is Thad? If he name is Thaddeus, he should shorten it to something else. I'd go with Deuce.)

Rich McBride continues to show up, which is really a relief to see, because not many other players do. Warren Carter had a big day, but Chester did nothing offensively, except for miss 3 free throws and have a lot of rebounds and assists, Jamar did little more than make a shot, and Pruitt was ineffective. So, it's good to see someone stepping up consistently. If only Rich could have turned into the Kevin Turner of this team as opposed to just a 3-point shooting off-guard.

Who would have expected to see Marcus Worthless Piece of Shit Arnold actually perform at a Division 1 level? I didn't, that's for sure. I heard IU is offering him a scholarship if he'll take a 5th year of eligibility after that performance. It was good to see him come in and do anything, especially since Pruitt was so ineffective.

And let's get back to Pruitt being ineffective for a second. The reason he did nothing in the first half was because he didn't play. He was called for two touch-fouls, in which he did nothing wrong. He was the victim of a fuck-job by the referees. The referees held a press-conference after the game.

Reporter: So, were you watching a different game on a mini-tv, and then making the calls based on what you were seeing on that tv? Because the calls you made had no relevance to the game you were actually refereeing.

Referee: Nope, no, I'm pretty sure we were watching the game on the floor today and making calls we thought were pertinent.

Reporter: Ok, well, then exactly what kind of excriment is your head filled with where your brain should be? Is it all human excriment, or is there dog excriment, or is it just a mixture?

Referee: No, I'm pretty sure my head isn't full of excriment. Good question though.

I don't understand how you could call two touch fouls on Pruitt, and then Carter leaves with two fouls around 10 minutes in the first half, and then Randle goes out with two around 5 minutes. And Illinois had the lead after the first half! I expected big things in the second half, but luckily the referees put the kabosh on that. Randle picks up his third quickly, then picks up his fourth. Pruitt remained ineffective despite not really getting into foul trouble (I don't think). Meanwhile, calls were not going both ways. I saw Warren get pushed on one play two different times that would have been called on the Illini, yet they weren't called. The refs called it closer down the stretch at least. Randle really fucked up where he fouled out holding that dude's jersey, but what about the push in the back that the dude offered him before Randle held his jersey? Nothing on that? Also, there were two or three times that I noticed Warren, when on offense, going to rebound a ball and he jumped on one side of the basket, but was pushed and landed on the other side of it. Obviously, the referees thought he wasn't pushed, which makes sense, because everybody knows if you jump on the side the ball goes to, you want to end up on the side it doesn't go to. Seriously, the referees were retarded.

But, all that aside, Illinois still should have won this game. At the end, we got fucked over on fouls a little bit, but the main thing was that our offense turned to shit. The problem I see with Chester Frazier is that he can't get into the offense. He'll spend 12 seconds dribbling before he makes a pass. By that point, we've got about 4 seconds to get into the offense or he gets the ball back to isolate for a shot, which he usually misses.

I also have a problem with our inbounds plays. Indiana was running plays and getting shots, but when does Illinois ever score off an inbounds play. There was the play that Carter dunked on on Saturday. Rarely have I seen that against any other team though. And then to take two timeouts at the end of the game Saturday and on one possession you don't get a shot, and on the other the best shot you can get is Rich shooting kind of a pull-up three? In the final three minutes of the game, I think Illinois only attempted something like three or four shots. Actually, it was closer to three if it was that many. That's going to kill you. Especially on the road. The one game we get to the free throw line and actually make them, we end up making turnovers at the end.

One more thing. Pruitt needs to learn to pass out of a double-team. I know it was easier for him early in the season because double teams, when they would come, would come late. But now teams are planning for him. He gets the ball and he's immediately double-teamed. He needs to learn to recognize double teams and if he can't split them (and usually he can't) he needs to kick the ball back out.

So we lost the game, fuck the Hoosiers. But I think there's definitely reason for optimism. First, Jamar's shot finally seems to be coming back around. Second, Brian Randle played a lot of the game, and he played pretty well. He still makes dumb fouls, but his defense is so aggressive. Third, the team finally played an entire game. We know that our defense can carry us against lesser opponents. Now we just need to work on closing out close games, which is something we really haven't had to do. And, we're at 18 wins. We should close the season with at least 22 wins, and our RPI is good enough that it should put us in the tournament. We've defended the home floor, and if we can finish with a win at Iowa, I think that makes us a pretty solid bet for the NCAA tournament. Maybe we can even make a run at the Big Ten tournament.

Cram it up your Hoosiers*

Last night was a very important win for this Illini team. I don't think that's a surprise to anyone. However, I think this could be a game that will (hopefully) be the turning point game that I hoped the Minnesota game could be (but wasn't). So here are my thoughts on the game last night.

First, it Orange Krush was awesome. I thought maybe the only thing that would happen was that they would boo Simpson** and that would be it. But damn was I sorely mistaken. The chants as old Cal*** walked out of the locker room of 'Call me Kelvin' were hilarious and poignant. I really also appreciated the 'Don't call us; we'll call you' chant while Wilmont or whatever his name is was trying to shoot his free throws. And finally when he was getting booed like crazy during his interview right before halftime was awesome. The Krush brought their A-game. And it was all insulting to the coach and not to the players, which I found particularly classy. It was much more classy than I would have been.

Now to the game. You could tell that Bruce Weber wanted to win the game because he was all up and down the sideline on the bench. He was screaming, pointing, arguing, pouting, and calling out plays and directions. This team has had a tendency to just kind of fall into a lull, and I think this might be the best way that Weber can offset that.

In the first half the defense started out pretty slow. D.J. White was hitting, other players were hitting, and Illinois was slow to rotate. They picked it up though, and Indiana stopped making anything. To be able to shut down any team for over 10 minutes without a field goal is a credit to any defense, and also our rebounding prevented second shots from close range. It was too bad that our offense was sluggish, otherwise we may have been able to not only come back to tie the game but pull away.

Rich McBride was pretty impressive last night. I'll admit I was all over him at the beginning of the season. I think it was fair too, because he blew. Hard. But now his defense is continually improving and he is shooting the ball with confidence. And if he makes his shots, I don't care where he shoots them from. He is still a liability passing the ball occasionally, which should be one of his stronger points, since he's usually passing it anytime he's not wide open. But it's not. However, he makes his free throws, and last night he even made a shot or two inside the three point line. Overall I was impressed.

Both Shaun Pruitt and Warren Carter were monsters on the boards. A number of times we held the Hoosiers to just one shot on a possession because of their ability to rebound the ball. And I don't know if the Hoosiers just had a small lineup or if none of their guards ever went in to rebound, but it seemed like on every possession either Carter or Pruitt was pulled down a rebound. I know Carter only had six, but it seemed like he was pulling down big rebounds at the end of the game a lot.

I liked seeing Carlwell get some action last night, but I did not like seeing Marcus Arnold get into the game before Carlwell. Why must we continually play Marcus Arnold. He is a waste. I wouldn't say Carlwell is a liability on the defensive end, as he helped cause (I believe) two steals last night. On the offensive end, he's at least tall and has pretty soft hands. Arnold has nothing. He's undersized, can't jump, can't rebound, can't really defend, except for his wide base. I just don't understand the thinking here.

I really like Chester Frazier's intensity, but I have a question. Well, I guess I have two questions. First, why can he not shoot free throws? He wants to be a point guard, he needs to be shooting 1000 free throws a day. He just looks terrible at the line. Second, when the game is going to come down to free throws, I appreciate that he wants the ball in his hands. But can't he give it to someone who is money from the free throw line? We had Rich McBride, Jamar Smith and Warren Carter all perfect from the line last night, yet Chet refused to pass the ball to them and took the foul himself. He did make the front of of a bonus last night (twice, I think), but he was 3-7 from the free throw line. There comes a point when you need to make the decision that's right for your team, and as a point guard, if he can't shoot free throws he should be able to get it to someone who can. In addition to that, what was the deal with just having the ball taken right away from him as he was basically dribbling right in some dude's face. His passing can be kind of lazy too. I like having him on the floor, he just really needs to focus and make the right decisions.

There was a stretch in the second half where I was pretty sure we were trying to give the game away, but we managed to come back strong. Once we got up by 8, we never led by less than 4 the rest of the way out. I think this game could help us to keep intensity in the second half when we have a lead.

So now we're 3-4 in the Big Ten. We benefit greatly this season by not having to go to Wisconsin or Ohio State, so we're done with them. And, personally, I think the refs screwed us out of the Wisconsin game, not so much with fouls called against us, but by not giving us baskets on various plays. Regardless, we're done with those teams, and we've already played Michigan and Michigan State on the road. We should be able to win out with the schedule we have left, and if we lose, I see only two potential losses coming at Purdue and at Indiana. We've already shown we can beat the Hoosiers, so hopefully we'll have Brian Randle to help drive the point home in Bloomington.

If we go 11-5 in the Big Ten, we're in the NCAA tournament. If we go 10-6, I think we're still in. If we go 9-7, I think it's close. But I see no reason to believe that we can't at least go 7-2 in the final 9 games.

*I'm pretty sure this doesn't make sense as it is. However, since I think of the Hoosiers as assholes, you can just substitute assholes and make it work.

**I know his name. It is out of pure disrespect and contempt that I misspell it.

***Ditto. I loathe him.

To make a point I've made 8 times before

Ok, I've made this point before. Probably at least 5 solid times before. So I will excuse everyone who has read some form of this before from reading this again.

GET OFF BRUCE WEBER'S CASE.

People. This should not be this difficult. Bruce Weber is an excellent coach. I believe his record as head coach of the Illini is 101-21. That comes to an 83% winning percentage. Just for simple math's sake. We all know who the Illini had before BW. And he sucked. His record was 78-24. And we were ecstatic to have him as our coach. Crunch a couple numbers, we'll call it a 76.5% winning percentage. Ok, so we have established that X's and O's, Illinois is much better off. (Sidenote, it should be pointed out that I hate comparing BW to that dude who blows ass.) Also, as far as we're concerned about Big Ten records, here's what we've got. Twice Self coached the Illini to Big Ten CO-champions. BAM coached us to 2 OUTRIGHT Big Ten Championships. And, I also want to point out, the Big Ten CO-champ teams both had 11-5 records.

Enough lousy comparison between an excellent coach and a shitty coach on coaching ability. There is a lot of talk about Weber being unable to recruit. He won with Self's guys, right?

I agree that Self was responsible for Brown, Williams and Augustine. But let's not forget what Self inherited at Champaign. Illinois Mr. Basketball Sergio McClain, Illinois Mr. Basketball Frank Williams, Illinois Mr. Basketball Brian Cook (can't remember if Cook was recruited by Self or not, but I don't believe he was). Not to mention Marcus Griffin. Had Self been able to coach, there is no excuse that this team should not have been able to get to the National Championship game, at least two of the guys are significant players in the NBA (it's debatable whether or not Cook is significant; also, I don't follow the Lakers, so I admit ignorance). Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

Had Self been able to coach those guys well, we would have been pissed off about the recruiting classes he brought in. Technically, I think for the most part we were pissed off with the class that brought in Brown, Williams, and Augustine. Because we weren't even mentioned in any of the top ten recruits' final 5's. Except for, say, Eddy Curry, but that's neither here nor there.

So, BAM comes in. First, the team starts out pretty poorly in Big Ten play. At one point, they fall to 3-3 in conference, and I'm thinking, "We hired the wrong guy." They end the season winning the Big Ten OUTRIGHT.

Then Illinois comes out, assumes #1 in the nation and holds it until the National Championship game, which came down to a final shot (and which BAM had to deal with Augustine getting fucked over on fouls (I'm still not over that)) that was missed. Finally, we're all excited about the carry-over this will have in recruiting.

We miss out on Sherron Collins, Julian Wright, Brandon Rush. Well, those guys had relationships with Self, and we all know how greasy he is. Can't be surprised they went there. So our class suffers. Yet we still get a top 50 recruit in Brian Carlwell (yes, top 50). But we're not satisfied.

Finally, we get the big one. Eric Gordon commits verbally to Illinois, and I was incredibly excited about the ramifications. Derrick Rose? Perhaps. Who knows who else?

Well, we missed out on some good players because Eric Gordon was committed. Players who were ready to come to Illinois, but also wanted playing time. So unfortunately they committed elsewhere. Oh, but what's that? He's backing out? A week before signing his Letter of Intent?

Aside from how classy that was, the real problem was the timing. A week before Signing Week? What were we supposed to do? Everyone who had considered Illinois had already verballed elsewhere (aside from O.J. Mayo. By the way, who the fuck goes to USC for TIM FLOYD? He won about 4 games total in 3 years with the Bulls. Good luck with that USC). So we were screwed. And, shit, were people pissed.

So, now Weber signs a kid from Compton, and people are still not satisfied. Listen. He's a 3-star talent, one of the few available left, and I seem to remember another late-blooming talent getting a scholarship from Illinois who turned out all right. Who was it again? Oh yeah, Calvin Brock, who, in only his RS sophomore year has improved immensely and is probably most improved on the team. And who's to say this kid can't be a lot better than Brock? Rivals.com has him listen in the top 100.

As for how this team is performing, remember this: 5 losses in the Big Ten used to be able to win at least a share of the conference title. Illinois has 2: one on the road in Michigan (that they should have won, but winning there is never easy), and the second against OSU. Now, aside from Wisconsin, point out a team that the Illini shouldn't handle easily. All I see is MSU. If Illinois runs the table at home (aside from WI), and loses 2 on the road (I'll throw IU a bone, even though they suck) that gives us 5. So let's just chill out before we whine about 5 losses in conference.

I understand wanting constant improvement and perfection. But at a certain point, it becomes nitpicking. It's incredibly shortsighted to say that Bruce has no control over this team after just 2 conference games. At the end of the season, if we sucked, then jump on him. If we don't make the NCAA tournament, I'll probably shit my pants in rage. But maybe we shouldn't base our entire opinions of the season and his coaching ability on what he's done through roughly half a season.

Note: I also want to point out the school's academic requirements. This is a fairly weak argument that Notre Dame fans use a lot, but I feel like Illinois passes on players they know will struggle in classes, or perhaps not even qualify. So comparing recruiting classes of a team who has no academic requirements, say, Ohio State, to a school like Illinois is unfair, because Illinois graduates its players. I think the more accurate comparison would be a team like Michigan State (while still probably not the most accurate). And if you look at how MSU is doing this year, do you start calling for Tom Izzo's head?