Handicapping the Illini
Last night the Illini survived the battle against Penn State to advance out of the first round of the Big Ten Tournament. I'm ecstatic that the Illini won, because Penn State is a team that, while overall not incredibly dangerous, can steal a game from just about any team in the Big Ten.
I actually didn't watch the game, and I blame ESPN for this. And my job. But, regardless we're out of the first round.
I am actually quite curious as to how we managed to score 66 points. This isn't a team that has been able to shoot the lights out, and scoring often comes sparingly. So how did we win this game? Thankfully, Chester Frazier and Warren Carter were making shots.
But what did I see from the highlights? Well, first, Illinois came out strong. They've done a much better job of this since early in the year when they fell behind to everyone, then battled back, only to fold (usually) again late in the game. Of course, maintaining their MO, the Illini once again failed to maintain the intensity down the stretch.
Illinois isn't going to score a lot of points. I get it. But why are we so incapable of scoring within 3-4 minutes left in the game? We don't even get shots up. I don't know if it's so much a matter of anything more than the players on the floor either being inexperienced, or lazy, or terrible free throw shooters, or what. But to lose a 10-point lead (I'm not talking about this game specifically) in the final three minutes is unacceptable. And I often wonder why someone like Trent Meacham isn't on the floor. The offense seems to flow better with Trent in, possibly because no one is entirely comfortable with him dribbling for 20 seconds. Then again, Trent doesn't quite have the intensity and quickness of a Frazier on the defensive end.
But I'm getting off-track here. I like this win, and I think that Illinois is probably safely in the NCAA tournament now. However, we can totally help our chances with a win vs. Indiana, and I think today could be one kickass game. You've got the Indiana inbreds chanting something about how they're bitches (I fucking hate them. It's really immature, but guess what: I am) and then you've got the Illini fans actually chanting poignant, relevant, original things (like "Fuck you Hoosiers" (perhaps a poor guess on my part)). There's the animosity towards the Hoosier coach, there's intensity among the players. The rivalry has totally been revived. I'm at least happy for that. It's too bad that the occurences leading up to said rivalry had to happen, but they did, so whatever.
Anyways, back on track again. I think the Illini are in the tournament now. I'm not entirely confident about it, but, come on, 22 fucking wins, and 34 RPI ranking and 32 strength of schedule. But how will the Illini fare? I actually had this discussion the other night.
As per usual with the NCAA tournament, it all comes down to matchups. Illinois, obviously, is an outstanding defensive team. So, say they get matched up against a team that is all offense and no defense. I'd like the Illini's chances for an upset in that game. Say, however, Illinois matches up with a fundamentally sound team that makes very few mistakes, maybe we don't match up quite so well. I would also like to say that I think we match up really well against a Georgetown type team because we defend the Princeton offense so well. But that's just me. If we get refs who call touch fouls, as often happens to Big Ten teams in the tournament, that is going to hurt the Illini's chance.
Basically, unless this team can show the ability to score points, I don't think we'll get very far in the tournament. Maybe yesterday was a sign that the points will be able to come from elsewhere than expected, but I'd like to see it come from somewhere else (Calvin Brock? Marcus Arnold? Did I really just hope Marcus Arnold scores a lot today?) again today. And if that happens, then we'll get a better seed and a better matchup for us to win.
So we're in the tournament hopefully, assuming no more crazy business happens with these conference tourneys. I think Illinois can advance out of the first round (and possibly even the second) but it's going to depend on matchups. And maybe we can come out of this with, say, a 12-seed, and just make it to the sweet 16. A 12-seeed would be perfect for us to do that.
Update: Illinois is 3-8 vs. the top 50 in the RPI, which doesn't look too great. But I looked at the games they've played. Of the 8 losses, 7 came against teams with RPI's higher than Illinois. And the 8th loss was at Purdue, who has a lower RPI, and a lower strength of schedule. Many people say Purdue is in. Looks pretty crazy to put in a worse team than Illinois and not put Illinois in. Also, the two of the three wins came against teams with higher RPIs. Illinois better fucking get in.
I actually didn't watch the game, and I blame ESPN for this. And my job. But, regardless we're out of the first round.
I am actually quite curious as to how we managed to score 66 points. This isn't a team that has been able to shoot the lights out, and scoring often comes sparingly. So how did we win this game? Thankfully, Chester Frazier and Warren Carter were making shots.
But what did I see from the highlights? Well, first, Illinois came out strong. They've done a much better job of this since early in the year when they fell behind to everyone, then battled back, only to fold (usually) again late in the game. Of course, maintaining their MO, the Illini once again failed to maintain the intensity down the stretch.
Illinois isn't going to score a lot of points. I get it. But why are we so incapable of scoring within 3-4 minutes left in the game? We don't even get shots up. I don't know if it's so much a matter of anything more than the players on the floor either being inexperienced, or lazy, or terrible free throw shooters, or what. But to lose a 10-point lead (I'm not talking about this game specifically) in the final three minutes is unacceptable. And I often wonder why someone like Trent Meacham isn't on the floor. The offense seems to flow better with Trent in, possibly because no one is entirely comfortable with him dribbling for 20 seconds. Then again, Trent doesn't quite have the intensity and quickness of a Frazier on the defensive end.
But I'm getting off-track here. I like this win, and I think that Illinois is probably safely in the NCAA tournament now. However, we can totally help our chances with a win vs. Indiana, and I think today could be one kickass game. You've got the Indiana inbreds chanting something about how they're bitches (I fucking hate them. It's really immature, but guess what: I am) and then you've got the Illini fans actually chanting poignant, relevant, original things (like "Fuck you Hoosiers" (perhaps a poor guess on my part)). There's the animosity towards the Hoosier coach, there's intensity among the players. The rivalry has totally been revived. I'm at least happy for that. It's too bad that the occurences leading up to said rivalry had to happen, but they did, so whatever.
Anyways, back on track again. I think the Illini are in the tournament now. I'm not entirely confident about it, but, come on, 22 fucking wins, and 34 RPI ranking and 32 strength of schedule. But how will the Illini fare? I actually had this discussion the other night.
As per usual with the NCAA tournament, it all comes down to matchups. Illinois, obviously, is an outstanding defensive team. So, say they get matched up against a team that is all offense and no defense. I'd like the Illini's chances for an upset in that game. Say, however, Illinois matches up with a fundamentally sound team that makes very few mistakes, maybe we don't match up quite so well. I would also like to say that I think we match up really well against a Georgetown type team because we defend the Princeton offense so well. But that's just me. If we get refs who call touch fouls, as often happens to Big Ten teams in the tournament, that is going to hurt the Illini's chance.
Basically, unless this team can show the ability to score points, I don't think we'll get very far in the tournament. Maybe yesterday was a sign that the points will be able to come from elsewhere than expected, but I'd like to see it come from somewhere else (Calvin Brock? Marcus Arnold? Did I really just hope Marcus Arnold scores a lot today?) again today. And if that happens, then we'll get a better seed and a better matchup for us to win.
So we're in the tournament hopefully, assuming no more crazy business happens with these conference tourneys. I think Illinois can advance out of the first round (and possibly even the second) but it's going to depend on matchups. And maybe we can come out of this with, say, a 12-seed, and just make it to the sweet 16. A 12-seeed would be perfect for us to do that.
Update: Illinois is 3-8 vs. the top 50 in the RPI, which doesn't look too great. But I looked at the games they've played. Of the 8 losses, 7 came against teams with RPI's higher than Illinois. And the 8th loss was at Purdue, who has a lower RPI, and a lower strength of schedule. Many people say Purdue is in. Looks pretty crazy to put in a worse team than Illinois and not put Illinois in. Also, the two of the three wins came against teams with higher RPIs. Illinois better fucking get in.
Labels: fuck the Hoosiers, Illini, Illini need to close out games
posted by Jtrouble at 8:35 AM
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