Wednesday, January 03, 2007

I'm bored: Let's talk Cubs

I think I'm going to start a new series of blogs (the last series technically being why Dusty Baker should be fired, which of course was very successful) in which I try and fight off boredom with various topics. Or maybe it won't really be a series at all and I will just keep writing random shit. Either way, let's talk about what's going on with the Cubs.

I was reading an article on the Tribune website today about the Cubs hopes for the pitching rotation for the upcoming season. We thought we would be well-off last year. Well, what did we have last year?

Mark Prior (rehabbing)
Kerry Wood (rehabbing)
Carlos Zambrano
Greg Maddux
Wade Miller (rehabbing)
Glendon Rusch (overweight)
Jerome Williams (terrible)
Sean Marshall (rookie)

So what do we have this year for the rotation?

Carlos Zambrano
Rich Hill
Ted Lilly
Jason Marquis (awful)
Mark Prior (rehabbing, may be ready for spring trainging)
Wade Miller (continued improvement from shoulder surgery)
Neal Cotts (success in minors starting, hasn't started for years)
Sean Marshall (portion of a year under his belt)

We are absolutely better off this season with the rotation than last year. First off, we're not going into spring training with two pitchers in our rotation yet to complete rehab. We actually have 4 healthy pitchers, possibly 6 or more, who are completely healthy. It's just a matter of who can perform while healthy.

We know Zambrano can pitch, and hopefully he can continue to cut back on walks, which are his really his only downfall. You can talk about his demeanor on the mound, but it doesn't really seem to hurt him, at least as much as walks.

Lilly has had a history of arm problems. Not severe arm problems, but if I'm correct, and I'm too lazy to research it, Lilly hasn't pitched 200 innings in a season. Still, he managed a pretty solid record last season (despite just being 1 game over .500 for his career) for a Toronto team that was slightly better than average (average meaning terrible). So we could consider Lilly like Maddux in stamina only. Some see him as a pitcher who could get better with age, as he learns to pitch to his strengths wisely. If he wins 15 games for us this year, I'm definitely satisfied.

Rich Hill came from obscurity last year. He hadn't pitched very well for us before last year, and he started off the season pretty poorly. He went back to AAA, then when he was recalled, he was dominant. His numbers for the second half of the season rival all pitchers. If he can replicate that, we are in excellent shape and he becomes our #2 starter (I think he'll be better than Lilly).

Rich Hill got absolutely no help from Rothschild. Rothschild had no idea how to help Rich Hill. So why do we think he can magically make Jason Marquis a better pitcher when two better pitching coaches have given up on Marquis? The good news is that Marquis is very durable, and he can rack up innings. So, should we get better performance from, say, both Wade Miller and Mark Prior, Marquis can fill the role of a spot starter and go long distances while saving our bullpen. Sure, it's a lot to pay a spot starter, but I blame Jim Hendry for that, and no one else.

Wade Miller has had an additional offseason to recover from shoulder surgery. It took him a long time to recover last season, longer than expected, but he performed fairly well when he made it back to the majors. If he can improve his stamina this season, his control could serve us pretty well, especially if he picks up some sort of change-up and becomes less of a power pitcher and more finesse, since it's tough to be a power pitcher when you top out at 85 mph. However, hopefully he can improve that fastball a little more this offseason as well.

Mark Prior has been rehabbing since August. Well, not necessarily, he's been on the shelf. But here's hoping that he can stay healthy this season. His velocity was down last season, but he was still able to get fairly good results while topping out at 91 mph. Maybe with more down time, he can improve the velocity, work on mechanics, take his time and get back to complete full strength. I would love to see Prior back in the rotation but he needs to defeat the stigma that he's always injured. And that could be tough because it seems like he's always rehabbing. So that needs to stop.

Neal Cotts was supposedly a dominant starter when he was in the A's farm system. But when he came up on the south side, they had a full rotation so they put him in the bullpen. He did well in 2005, and sucked in 2006. Maybe a change of scenery will serve him well, but if he can be a solid starter, there's really no reason to not give him a shot. We already have an assload of lefties in our bullpen. If he can't pitch in the rotation, then put him in the bullpen and move one of our other lefties.

Finally, the Cubs have a list of rookies who performed well in spots last year and looked terribly shitty in other spots. I wouldn't be surprised if they were able to improve (especially Sean Marshall) their abilities. Remember, it took Zambrano almost a full season in the bullpen before he finally came into his own as a dominant starter.

On a similar yet unrelated note, the Indians made an offer to Mark Mulder that they're still waiting to hear back from (I think). If they sign Mulder, it would make it more likely that they would move a pitcher out of their rotation (most likely Jake Westbrook). I would love to see the Cubs trade for Westbrook. We have plenty to give.

In other news, the Cubs may invite David Newhan to spring training. Who is David Newhan? Basically Cesar Izturis, except probably not as good with the glove. He's an outfielder who doesn't hit or get on base. I would much rather just stick Jacque Jones out in center than Newhan.

Anyways, I consider us much better off as far as the pitching is concerned. I may or may not post about position players later, so you may want to look for that. Or not, it's really not going to affect whether I do it or not.

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