An Optimist's predictions for the Illini

The NCAA tournament starts today and I couldn't be happier. There is absolutely nothing better than this time of year. I mean, unless you hate college basketball, and you particularly hate close, exciting college basketball games. Then maybe it's not so great for you. But in that case, you're an idiot.

Looking at the Illini's matchups, I would say that there is an extremely, EXTREMELY outside chance that they could make the elite 8. And that's being incredibly optimistic. But, the Illini can totally advance past this weekend. A closer look at the matchups:

vs. Virginia Tech

VT is a quick, athletic team. Athletic teams can give slower teams a big headache if they control the pace. However, if there's one thing we've seen from the Illini this year, it's that they can slow down ANYBODY. They will make you play an ugly game. I don't necessarily see that as something Va Tech can handle. Also, I like the matchups that they present Illinois with defensively. Deron Washington is out-of-his-mind athletic, but I think Brian Randle can match his athleticism well. Leading scorer Zabian Dowdell will probably get matched up with Rich McBride, who is just about as good a defender as anybody on this team, which is actually a relief to most Illini fans, since he doesn't always bring his shot to the gym. After that, you've got a G/F who will either draw Warren Carter or Brian Randle in defense, or perhaps even Calvin Brock, the center who doesn't score a lot, and the other guard who will get matched up against Chester Frazier.

Defensively, I think we can interrupt this team's flow pretty easily, assuming the officials let us play. I also think that, since they don't really defend much in the ACC, the ACC may face some extremely tough challenges in the tournament. I like the Illini in this game, because they can out-ugly you with some of the best.

vs. SIU/Holy Cross

I'm just going to pretend that Illinois would play SIU in the second round, although Holy Cross isn't one to be taken lightly. SIU averages close to 66 ppg as a team. This could make things difficult for the Illini, because, as opposed to the ACC where they don't really defend, some of the MVC teams CAN defend. There are also some teams on the low end of the MVC (cough, Illinois State, cough) who you can go light up.

Regardless, the Salukis both defend and can score, and they bring a pretty even attack at you. Their leading scorer is Jamaal Tatum, who I assume will draw Rich McBride. After that you've got Randal Falker, whom I believe will be guarded by Brian Randle when he's on the floor. Again, I like these matchups. If there's one thing Illinois does pretty fucking well, it's disrupt the offense. Also, of the top 5 scorers on the team, the tallest guy for SIU is 6'7". I think that Pruitt's (and Carter's) size can disrupt the guys on the inside, and possibly can disrupt the Saluki's gameplan, should they need to bring in their center. (They have the size, I just don't know much about what type of offense they run or who's in their starting lineup.)

Also, I like the master coaching against his pupil. Lowery used to be an assistant of Bruce Weber's, and, whatever you feel about the Illini, you have to admit that with this team, and all the distractions, it's pretty much a miracle the Illini are in the tournament. I don't know if the Illini WILL win this game, but they definitely CAN.

vs. Kansas

I will say that I'm not even sure Kansas will make it this far. Remember last year? Everybody said they were playing the best basketball in the nation, and then they lost in the first round to Bradley.

Anyways, Kansas creates tough matchups because they bring a pretty balanced attack. Well, maybe you could call it balanced, maybe you could call the players inconsistent. I figure you match up Brandon Rush with either Rich or Randle. You don't have to worry about the PG much. You may match Julian Wright up with Randle or Carter, depending on who's on the floor for Kansas. I think, again, with the Illini's ability we can disrupt their offense. But, the problem is that Kansas can score bunches of points quickly.

One of the reason's I think the Illini can win this game is because Bill Self isn't a great coach. I think throughout the course of a season he can learn his team's abilities and whatnot. However, we've seen him fail TWICE in the tournament. With the gritty Illinois defense, we can give Kansas a game. However, if we play like we did in the Purdue game and give them a 13 minutes head start, we're definitely screwed.

Should the Illini actually advance past the first weekend, I'll update my predictions. I think Illinois might actually have a little bit of the upper hand against Virginia Tech. Gotta love the 5-12 matchup.

The easiest way to win games in March is to play perfect basketball (obviously). No turnovers, smart shots, good possessions, solid defense, make your free throws. If UNC doesn't shoot 100% from the free throw line, NC State could have taken the Illini's tournament spot away. Unfortunately, the Illini only have like one of the keys to win easy games in solid defense. If, IF we catch fire and get a lucky break or two, Illinois can find themselves in the Sweet 16. If not, we'll be looking forward to Demetri McCamey and Quincy Watkins next year.

I-L-L