I hope we don't get a Hendry*
Yesterday Carlos Zambrano came out and stated that if he didn't get a new contract from the Cubs by the beginning of the season, he would refuse to negotiate his contract any more and he would leave the team at the end of the year, if not at the trading deadline. I absolutely believe he is not bluffing, and I am nervous about Jim Hendry giving the Cubs a Hendry.
A Hendry is a multi-functional verb. It actually has two meanings. The first is just when the Cubs GM fucks over the Cubs by letting a player go in free agency rather than getting something for that player when said player's value was high. See Pierre, Juan. The second meaning is new to this season, and it is when Hendry fucks over the team in the long run because he's about to lose his job and he doesn't care what it takes to win before he inevitably gets fired. So how are we about to get a Hendry now?
Most Cubs fans know about the situation with Carlos Zambrano, but let's just revisit it for a second. Carlos is in an arbitration year, and he's asking $15.5 million. The Cubs, however, are only offering $11.025 million for this upcoming season.
The problem with this is two-fold. First, Big Z doesn't want to get screwed over in what he's making, as he's been underpaid pretty much since he joined the rotation. He's still young and he still has such a huge upside. So, he wants to get paid as close to $15.5 million as he can, which is more than fair. However, I don't think Carlos cares what he gets out of arbitration because he wants a new contract before the beginning of the season, which would either replace the contract out of arbitration (if the two sides can't reach an agreement before February 20th, his arbitration date) or add on to that contract.
So, let's assume that the arbitration hearing is split down the middle, and Carlos earns $13.25 million for the 2007 season. A solid raise from last season. Zambrano's career numbers are 64-42 with a 3.29 ERA, and he's pitched over 200 innings in each of the past four seasons. And he's only going to be 26 this season (I'm no sabermetrician, and I don't really understand those stats, so we'll just keep this analysis simple). Now, the biggest free agent pitcher this past offseason was Barry Zito. Zito will turn 29 this season and is basically making $18 million a season for seven seasons. Zito is 102-63 with a 3.55 ERA. Zito has thrown over 200 innings in his past 6 seasons, and in his first season he didn't get nearly enough starts to come close to that. So durability has never been a problem for him. His ERA is not nearly as good in the past 3 years compared to his first 4 years.
So you could look at Zambrano at $15.5 million as a bargain. Which I believe it is. But the Cubs have also brought in two "starters" (I use the term loosely for Jason Marquis). Ted Lilly was brought in as a starter. Lilly will be 31 this season and was signed for $10 million a year for 4 years. Lilly is 59-58 in his career with a 4.60 ERA, and his highest inning total for his career is 197 (he's been over 170 IP 3 times in his career). Jason Marquis, the worst starting pitcher on the free agent market, and one of, if the THE worst starter in major league baseball last year, got a $21 million contract for 3 years. Marquis is 56-52 with a 4.55 ERA, and he's been near or over 200 innings in the past 3 years. And he's only going to be 29 this season. It would appear based on these statistics that Marquis is actually the wiser signing.
This is why numbers can lie. But, regardless, is Hendry saying that Zambrano is worth only slightly more than Ted Lilly? Not necessarily. Perhaps Hendry thought he had a lot of time left to get a deal done with Zambrano for a contract extension, so they made fiscally wise decision to pay him as little as possible, then reward him with the extension.
But now Zambrano has said he wants a new deal or he's leaving.
So what will Hendry do? Obviously it would be ridiculous to let Zambrano go, suggesting we can't pay him. We just threw $40 million at Ted Lilly, who is obviously a far superior pitcher. If Zambrano hits the free agent market, he will be the best free agent pitcher to have been on the market in years. And the Cubs don't need another Greg Maddux situation.
The question is, will he Hendry us? He's already done all he needs to (supposedly) to build a solid team for this season, and slightly into the future, as the core players are locked up for a while. But another member of that core is Big Z.
I really hope he doesn't Hendry us and he gives Zambrano a contract before Opening Day. I just can't be sure if he will or not. On one hand, Penny-pincher MacPhail is gone, but this is also the GM who passed on Jeff Suppan for Jason Marquis.
I think we can all assume that if Z walks though, Hendry will be out after this season, if he makes it that long.
*I hope getting a Hendry is a phrase that doesn't require catching on, but I proclaim myself the first to use such a phrase, and should it catch on, I own the rights to it. Also, I demand credit for verb "Hendry."
A Hendry is a multi-functional verb. It actually has two meanings. The first is just when the Cubs GM fucks over the Cubs by letting a player go in free agency rather than getting something for that player when said player's value was high. See Pierre, Juan. The second meaning is new to this season, and it is when Hendry fucks over the team in the long run because he's about to lose his job and he doesn't care what it takes to win before he inevitably gets fired. So how are we about to get a Hendry now?
Most Cubs fans know about the situation with Carlos Zambrano, but let's just revisit it for a second. Carlos is in an arbitration year, and he's asking $15.5 million. The Cubs, however, are only offering $11.025 million for this upcoming season.
The problem with this is two-fold. First, Big Z doesn't want to get screwed over in what he's making, as he's been underpaid pretty much since he joined the rotation. He's still young and he still has such a huge upside. So, he wants to get paid as close to $15.5 million as he can, which is more than fair. However, I don't think Carlos cares what he gets out of arbitration because he wants a new contract before the beginning of the season, which would either replace the contract out of arbitration (if the two sides can't reach an agreement before February 20th, his arbitration date) or add on to that contract.
So, let's assume that the arbitration hearing is split down the middle, and Carlos earns $13.25 million for the 2007 season. A solid raise from last season. Zambrano's career numbers are 64-42 with a 3.29 ERA, and he's pitched over 200 innings in each of the past four seasons. And he's only going to be 26 this season (I'm no sabermetrician, and I don't really understand those stats, so we'll just keep this analysis simple). Now, the biggest free agent pitcher this past offseason was Barry Zito. Zito will turn 29 this season and is basically making $18 million a season for seven seasons. Zito is 102-63 with a 3.55 ERA. Zito has thrown over 200 innings in his past 6 seasons, and in his first season he didn't get nearly enough starts to come close to that. So durability has never been a problem for him. His ERA is not nearly as good in the past 3 years compared to his first 4 years.
So you could look at Zambrano at $15.5 million as a bargain. Which I believe it is. But the Cubs have also brought in two "starters" (I use the term loosely for Jason Marquis). Ted Lilly was brought in as a starter. Lilly will be 31 this season and was signed for $10 million a year for 4 years. Lilly is 59-58 in his career with a 4.60 ERA, and his highest inning total for his career is 197 (he's been over 170 IP 3 times in his career). Jason Marquis, the worst starting pitcher on the free agent market, and one of, if the THE worst starter in major league baseball last year, got a $21 million contract for 3 years. Marquis is 56-52 with a 4.55 ERA, and he's been near or over 200 innings in the past 3 years. And he's only going to be 29 this season. It would appear based on these statistics that Marquis is actually the wiser signing.
This is why numbers can lie. But, regardless, is Hendry saying that Zambrano is worth only slightly more than Ted Lilly? Not necessarily. Perhaps Hendry thought he had a lot of time left to get a deal done with Zambrano for a contract extension, so they made fiscally wise decision to pay him as little as possible, then reward him with the extension.
But now Zambrano has said he wants a new deal or he's leaving.
So what will Hendry do? Obviously it would be ridiculous to let Zambrano go, suggesting we can't pay him. We just threw $40 million at Ted Lilly, who is obviously a far superior pitcher. If Zambrano hits the free agent market, he will be the best free agent pitcher to have been on the market in years. And the Cubs don't need another Greg Maddux situation.
The question is, will he Hendry us? He's already done all he needs to (supposedly) to build a solid team for this season, and slightly into the future, as the core players are locked up for a while. But another member of that core is Big Z.
I really hope he doesn't Hendry us and he gives Zambrano a contract before Opening Day. I just can't be sure if he will or not. On one hand, Penny-pincher MacPhail is gone, but this is also the GM who passed on Jeff Suppan for Jason Marquis.
I think we can all assume that if Z walks though, Hendry will be out after this season, if he makes it that long.
*I hope getting a Hendry is a phrase that doesn't require catching on, but I proclaim myself the first to use such a phrase, and should it catch on, I own the rights to it. Also, I demand credit for verb "Hendry."
Labels: Big Z, cubs, getting a Hendry
posted by Jtrouble at 1:11 PM
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