I cannot wait for baseball
Spring training is finally here, and I've neglected to say really anything about the Cubs since Carlos avoided arbitration. Last week. Well, that's over for now, as I'm dying for the season to begin.
First, there was an article on Jason Marquis on chicagosports.com. The article was pretty stupid, and it was mainly Marquis making excuses for his performance last year. He pretty much blames his poor numbers on the start against the White Sox where he was left in to get a pounding. And, supposedly, his ERA skyrocketed just because of that. Not true. His ERA is still terrible if you take that out. His PERA for last year, taking into account peripheral statistics I don't even understand (Baseball Prospectus is fucking loaded with stats. It is literally insane) was 5.71. The PERA is less subject to luck, and 4.5 is average. Obviously, Marquis was well below average. What about his other numbers though? Well, the other two that stick out to me on his PECOTA card are his "Stuff," which measures his dominance, WHICH WAS NEGATIVE, -14 to be exact. The other is his VORP, Value Over Replacement Player, WHICH WAS ALSO NEGATIVE, at -5.7.
So Marquis sucked last year. In 15 innings, J.K. Ryu, whom the Cubs traded over the offseason, performed pretty poorly, and his VORP was only -3.7. Les Fucking Walrond had a better VORP than Marquis. Ok, Angel Guzman had a worse one. Seriously, I was looking at Cubs pitchers who performed poorly last year (in short stints) and it took me three to find one with a worse VORP than Marquis.
But what about this article? First, Marquis is pretty much blaming La Russa for his poor numbers last year. Didn't La Russa realize it was his contract year? How dare he.
Then, Paul Sullivan goes on to say that the Cubs expect big things out of Marquis this year. Not true at all. Well, if it is true, then we're up shit creek. He was brought in to be a 4th starter out of spring training, only because we have so many question marks at the end of the rotation. But we are not lacking in depth. So, if we can find two pitchers to perform better, Marquis probably moves to the bullpen. But, given the shitty, shitty, shitty contract we gave him, money matters might make us keep him in the rotation over, say, Sean Marshall, who, surprise!, has better numbers than Marquis. Definitely by mid-season though, Marquis should be our fifth starter, and if he's not, he will still be our worst starter.
Then Sullivan talks to Lou Piniella, who I'm liking more and more all the time. I really hope I don't start to hate him, because I've said a couple times that I actually think he could be a good manager. I guess that's easy to say before the season starts. Anyways, Piniella says if you take three or four of Marquis's bad starts away, his ERA drops to about 4.5. This is actually probably pretty close to true. Well, it probably drops to 5. But the problem is that you can't take 3 or 4 of those starts away. Lou also uses the phrase "malt-liquor-bull type of approach." I don't know what that means, but I like it.
So let's get off of how depressing the Jason Marquis signing is and to SPECULATION!
Well, first, I saw this article about a week ago, talking about how Felix Pie and Alfonso Soriano have been hanging out together a lot at camp. This is awesome news, because Soriano can help Pie with what to expect, and Pie can help Soriano with defense. And obviously, having Pie around keeps a very expensive Soriano happy.
Now to the speculation. Jacque Jones may spend a lot of time in center field this year. Perhaps the Cubs are showing him off a lot right now so they can build up his value as a team player. But why would they want to ship him off when there's really no viable replacement?
Well, first, there sort of is. We've got Angel Pagan who started out last year awesome, and who knows?, maybe he can hit a curveball this eyar. Pagan can play for when Cliff Floyd gets hurt, while we've got Soriano in center.
Second, Soriano is happy when Pie is around. It makes no sense to have Pie up with the team unless he's playing every day though. Why not give Pie center? Well, don't give it to him, but if he earns it, why not let him have it? PECOTA (STATS!!!) projects Pie will bat .289 this year, in his first year in the majors. That would be stellar. Hell, all Pie really needs to do is hit somewhere around .270.
I think that the spring games will show what direction the Cubs will move in. If Pie is hitting, because we all know he can do EVERYTHING else, then I say the Cubs intensify the plan to move Jones. If Pie isn't hitting, then they'll probably keep Jones around, at least for a little while. I really can't see the Cubs moving Jones to bring in another CF though, when basically everyone on our roster can play the outfield.
So, in review:
Jason Marquis sucks, and he's kind of being a bitch about his terrible numbers last year. The Cubs are not looking for big things from him. Unless you consider not getting hurt "big things."
Jacque Jones probably won't end the season with the Cubs, but will he begin it with them? I hope not.
First, there was an article on Jason Marquis on chicagosports.com. The article was pretty stupid, and it was mainly Marquis making excuses for his performance last year. He pretty much blames his poor numbers on the start against the White Sox where he was left in to get a pounding. And, supposedly, his ERA skyrocketed just because of that. Not true. His ERA is still terrible if you take that out. His PERA for last year, taking into account peripheral statistics I don't even understand (Baseball Prospectus is fucking loaded with stats. It is literally insane) was 5.71. The PERA is less subject to luck, and 4.5 is average. Obviously, Marquis was well below average. What about his other numbers though? Well, the other two that stick out to me on his PECOTA card are his "Stuff," which measures his dominance, WHICH WAS NEGATIVE, -14 to be exact. The other is his VORP, Value Over Replacement Player, WHICH WAS ALSO NEGATIVE, at -5.7.
So Marquis sucked last year. In 15 innings, J.K. Ryu, whom the Cubs traded over the offseason, performed pretty poorly, and his VORP was only -3.7. Les Fucking Walrond had a better VORP than Marquis. Ok, Angel Guzman had a worse one. Seriously, I was looking at Cubs pitchers who performed poorly last year (in short stints) and it took me three to find one with a worse VORP than Marquis.
But what about this article? First, Marquis is pretty much blaming La Russa for his poor numbers last year. Didn't La Russa realize it was his contract year? How dare he.
Then, Paul Sullivan goes on to say that the Cubs expect big things out of Marquis this year. Not true at all. Well, if it is true, then we're up shit creek. He was brought in to be a 4th starter out of spring training, only because we have so many question marks at the end of the rotation. But we are not lacking in depth. So, if we can find two pitchers to perform better, Marquis probably moves to the bullpen. But, given the shitty, shitty, shitty contract we gave him, money matters might make us keep him in the rotation over, say, Sean Marshall, who, surprise!, has better numbers than Marquis. Definitely by mid-season though, Marquis should be our fifth starter, and if he's not, he will still be our worst starter.
Then Sullivan talks to Lou Piniella, who I'm liking more and more all the time. I really hope I don't start to hate him, because I've said a couple times that I actually think he could be a good manager. I guess that's easy to say before the season starts. Anyways, Piniella says if you take three or four of Marquis's bad starts away, his ERA drops to about 4.5. This is actually probably pretty close to true. Well, it probably drops to 5. But the problem is that you can't take 3 or 4 of those starts away. Lou also uses the phrase "malt-liquor-bull type of approach." I don't know what that means, but I like it.
So let's get off of how depressing the Jason Marquis signing is and to SPECULATION!
Well, first, I saw this article about a week ago, talking about how Felix Pie and Alfonso Soriano have been hanging out together a lot at camp. This is awesome news, because Soriano can help Pie with what to expect, and Pie can help Soriano with defense. And obviously, having Pie around keeps a very expensive Soriano happy.
Now to the speculation. Jacque Jones may spend a lot of time in center field this year. Perhaps the Cubs are showing him off a lot right now so they can build up his value as a team player. But why would they want to ship him off when there's really no viable replacement?
Well, first, there sort of is. We've got Angel Pagan who started out last year awesome, and who knows?, maybe he can hit a curveball this eyar. Pagan can play for when Cliff Floyd gets hurt, while we've got Soriano in center.
Second, Soriano is happy when Pie is around. It makes no sense to have Pie up with the team unless he's playing every day though. Why not give Pie center? Well, don't give it to him, but if he earns it, why not let him have it? PECOTA (STATS!!!) projects Pie will bat .289 this year, in his first year in the majors. That would be stellar. Hell, all Pie really needs to do is hit somewhere around .270.
I think that the spring games will show what direction the Cubs will move in. If Pie is hitting, because we all know he can do EVERYTHING else, then I say the Cubs intensify the plan to move Jones. If Pie isn't hitting, then they'll probably keep Jones around, at least for a little while. I really can't see the Cubs moving Jones to bring in another CF though, when basically everyone on our roster can play the outfield.
So, in review:
Jason Marquis sucks, and he's kind of being a bitch about his terrible numbers last year. The Cubs are not looking for big things from him. Unless you consider not getting hurt "big things."
Jacque Jones probably won't end the season with the Cubs, but will he begin it with them? I hope not.
posted by Jtrouble at 8:13 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home