Wowzers
I really can't believe this is happening. It's starting to look like Jim Hendry may be actually trying to turn the Cubs into a winning baseball team as opposed to this giant underachieving joke.
The Cubs agreed to terms with Alfonso Soriano yesterday. 8 years, $136 million. I'm very surprised by this number, since the Cubs have never gone anything over something like 6 years (with options I think) and never even near $100 million. So this contract makes me nervous. But, regardless, we have a hitter who is deadly at the top of the lineup now.
Basically it seems like Hendry kind of approached this without any regard for the market. Soriano is 31 now I believe, so he'll be 39 when the contract expires. Most contracts that start out that long usually involve out clauses. But, also, I'm not sure if a player who signs for over $100 for any length of time actually finishes out the contract with the team they sign with. Mainly Kevin Brown and A-Rod are the two in mind. Hell, even Tejada is getting shopped around. So, we may not be on the hook forever. Plus, when the contract expires, it could be a market average to see top tier players get $17 a year (or more), so I doubt it's all that outlandish. Plus, look at the deal Sosa got (around '96). First everyone said we overpaid terribly, then he started taking whatever he took and hit HR's like crazy, and then everyone said that Hendry (was Hendry the GM?) was a genius. Anyways, it seemed like $17 a year was what Soriano wanted, for 7 years, and then teams could bid higher. Well, the Cubs, wanting to fulfill a young man's dream of swimming in money, just threw an extra year and all that money in his face and dared him not to take it. And he obviously did.
So now to the rumors. I guess Soriano was signed to play a corner outfield spot. Which means that either Murton or Jones (or perhaps both?) are now on the trading block. Other rumors I've heard for position players include Izturis drawing some interest from teams who are angry that they don't have a defensive SS with the inability to hit at all, the Cubs may be interested in bringing in Julio Lugo (who will hit more than Izturis), Gary Matthews Jr. may still be on the radar, as is possible with J.D. Drew.
Now, I think it would be awesome if we could trade for Vernon Wells. We've got some payroll to play with, and I definitely think he would be worth whatever we give up. Failing that, I think we bring in Gary Matthews Jr. He had a career year last year, but hit also OBP'd around .370, which is 40 points higher than Juan Pierre. So even if he can't repeat the year offensively, I would still think we could expect a higher OBP than from Juan Pierre. Also, it would still be an upgrade if he had the same OBP because he won't be hitting lead-off.
Another factor in deciding our CF is payroll. We would have to unload some for Wells probably, who is in the last year of his contract (I think?). However, it seems that J.D. Drew is going to want a deal in the $12-14 million annually range, but I think I commented about one rumor hearing $15 million annually for 2 years. I haven't heard anything since then. But obviously, Drew is the most expensive (as far as payroll goes), Wells would probably want an extension, so I'd say Matthews is the best choice. Also I love Matthews back in center.
And now we come back to pitching. The Cubs need plenty of it. We have 2, maybe 2.5 starters for our rotation (the .5 being Wade Miller/Mark Prior). And we're probably out of the running for any top-level talent, since we only have between $15-20 million to play with and at least 2 spots to fill. Again, the rumors are pretty underwhelming: Gil Meche, Kei Igawa (who some don't think is going to translate to MLB well), Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla, and for some ungodly reason Jason Marquis.
It is my belief that Marquis would be a mistake to sign to pitch in the rotation. If you want to sign him and see if you can turn him around (at AAA maybe?) then maybe do it. But he posted an ERA of 6. Not good. Not even bad. That's horrific. And if he pitches that well in a contract year, what happens when he has a contract? I probably wouldn't mind seeing Meche and Lilly, or perhaps even Padilla (who I'm not a fan of). But if we can keep the ball in the park, which may or may not happen, our offense should score enough. Also rumored is that the Cubs really like Jake Westbrook. I am fine with this. I think we should trade for starters. Unload Eyre and/or Dempster, clear some salary space, bring in a solid proven starter. If our rotation could be Zambrano, Westbrook, Lilly/Meche, Hill, Meche/Igawa/Miller/Prior/Cotts/Marshall/anyone else, I think we're probably going to do well. I'd rather have way too many pitchers who can start than nowhere near enough.
So Hendry made a good move, and he doesn't really end up overpaying anything except one year that will probably be an option year anyways. I guess there may be a reason for optimism when spring training rolls around after all.
The Cubs agreed to terms with Alfonso Soriano yesterday. 8 years, $136 million. I'm very surprised by this number, since the Cubs have never gone anything over something like 6 years (with options I think) and never even near $100 million. So this contract makes me nervous. But, regardless, we have a hitter who is deadly at the top of the lineup now.
Basically it seems like Hendry kind of approached this without any regard for the market. Soriano is 31 now I believe, so he'll be 39 when the contract expires. Most contracts that start out that long usually involve out clauses. But, also, I'm not sure if a player who signs for over $100 for any length of time actually finishes out the contract with the team they sign with. Mainly Kevin Brown and A-Rod are the two in mind. Hell, even Tejada is getting shopped around. So, we may not be on the hook forever. Plus, when the contract expires, it could be a market average to see top tier players get $17 a year (or more), so I doubt it's all that outlandish. Plus, look at the deal Sosa got (around '96). First everyone said we overpaid terribly, then he started taking whatever he took and hit HR's like crazy, and then everyone said that Hendry (was Hendry the GM?) was a genius. Anyways, it seemed like $17 a year was what Soriano wanted, for 7 years, and then teams could bid higher. Well, the Cubs, wanting to fulfill a young man's dream of swimming in money, just threw an extra year and all that money in his face and dared him not to take it. And he obviously did.
So now to the rumors. I guess Soriano was signed to play a corner outfield spot. Which means that either Murton or Jones (or perhaps both?) are now on the trading block. Other rumors I've heard for position players include Izturis drawing some interest from teams who are angry that they don't have a defensive SS with the inability to hit at all, the Cubs may be interested in bringing in Julio Lugo (who will hit more than Izturis), Gary Matthews Jr. may still be on the radar, as is possible with J.D. Drew.
Now, I think it would be awesome if we could trade for Vernon Wells. We've got some payroll to play with, and I definitely think he would be worth whatever we give up. Failing that, I think we bring in Gary Matthews Jr. He had a career year last year, but hit also OBP'd around .370, which is 40 points higher than Juan Pierre. So even if he can't repeat the year offensively, I would still think we could expect a higher OBP than from Juan Pierre. Also, it would still be an upgrade if he had the same OBP because he won't be hitting lead-off.
Another factor in deciding our CF is payroll. We would have to unload some for Wells probably, who is in the last year of his contract (I think?). However, it seems that J.D. Drew is going to want a deal in the $12-14 million annually range, but I think I commented about one rumor hearing $15 million annually for 2 years. I haven't heard anything since then. But obviously, Drew is the most expensive (as far as payroll goes), Wells would probably want an extension, so I'd say Matthews is the best choice. Also I love Matthews back in center.
And now we come back to pitching. The Cubs need plenty of it. We have 2, maybe 2.5 starters for our rotation (the .5 being Wade Miller/Mark Prior). And we're probably out of the running for any top-level talent, since we only have between $15-20 million to play with and at least 2 spots to fill. Again, the rumors are pretty underwhelming: Gil Meche, Kei Igawa (who some don't think is going to translate to MLB well), Ted Lilly, Vicente Padilla, and for some ungodly reason Jason Marquis.
It is my belief that Marquis would be a mistake to sign to pitch in the rotation. If you want to sign him and see if you can turn him around (at AAA maybe?) then maybe do it. But he posted an ERA of 6. Not good. Not even bad. That's horrific. And if he pitches that well in a contract year, what happens when he has a contract? I probably wouldn't mind seeing Meche and Lilly, or perhaps even Padilla (who I'm not a fan of). But if we can keep the ball in the park, which may or may not happen, our offense should score enough. Also rumored is that the Cubs really like Jake Westbrook. I am fine with this. I think we should trade for starters. Unload Eyre and/or Dempster, clear some salary space, bring in a solid proven starter. If our rotation could be Zambrano, Westbrook, Lilly/Meche, Hill, Meche/Igawa/Miller/Prior/Cotts/Marshall/anyone else, I think we're probably going to do well. I'd rather have way too many pitchers who can start than nowhere near enough.
So Hendry made a good move, and he doesn't really end up overpaying anything except one year that will probably be an option year anyways. I guess there may be a reason for optimism when spring training rolls around after all.
posted by Jtrouble at 8:13 AM
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